George Will tries to tell us there is no recession

Sorry Will, only if you use the definition of Recession as:

Two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country’s gross domestic product (GDP)

However if you use the National Bureau of Economic Research definition:

The committee places particular emphasis on two monthly measures of activity across the entire economy: (1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and (2) employment. In addition, we refer to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing and goods: (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes. We also look at monthly estimates of real GDP such as those prepared by Macroeconomic Advisers (see http://www.macroadvisers.com). Although these indicators are the most important measures considered by the NBER in developing its business cycle chronology, there is no fixed rule about which other measures contribute information to the process.

Then we are in a recession

HuffPo has the story:

Personal incomes rose 1.9% in May, the largest gain since September 2005, when insurance payments from hurricane damage flooded into bank accounts. The increase was close to the 1.5% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

Real disposable incomes (after taxes and adjusted for inflation) increased 5.3%, the biggest increase since 1975, when the government also sent out rebate checks. Read the full report.

Excluding the impact of the rebates and inflation, real disposable incomes were flat.

Click the link to read the rest

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